The Assumption Paradox

Leadership Workshop (10 of 12) – Start with Yourself

Leading at Light Speed is a powerful new leadership book revealing 10 Quantum Leaps to build trust, spark innovation, and create a high-performing organization.

The Assumption Paradox is a concept in Leading at Light Speed described in Chapter 9 along with three other Leadership Paradoxes. Buy the book to read about the other three.

Leaders need to make tough decisions – and yet almost always those decisions are based on a set of assumptions. Perhaps the most common assumption these days is that we, as powerful players, can solve any problem within the game if we simply go at it rationally. We assume we can affect major outcomes through the force of our will. We assume our competence, act on the basis of that assumption, and then we defend our assumption to the hilt. Even faced with undeniable evidence, we will not back down and admit defeat for fear of looking foolish and losing face. This can result in a series of poor decisions that, bulwarked by our assumption of competence, further reinforce our incompetence! As the author Colin Wilson said: “fear is the mind killer.” And assumptions are the accomplice, driving the getaway car.

The only way to navigate the vicious cycle of assumption is to recognize the underlying fear at work – the selfconcious fear of embarrassment – and find the strength to admit mistakes and work with others to break the cycle. This means creating a culture where people are free to challenge one another’s thinking and are able to ask questions straightforwardly. It’s a theme I’ve repeated several times in this book: A high-performing organization is one in which trust prevails, in which you, the leader, are the first to admit your mistakes. No one can be right if every one is wrong, goes the old axiom. But, on the other hand, no one can be right if everyone’s right. You must lead by example.

I’ve been nearly killed by my assumptions. One day I decided I wanted to build a bridge across the stream at our farm in Virginia. I reconnoitered the situation and decided that if I cut down a particular oak tree, I could make it fall in such a way that it would land across the stream and become a perfect bridge. So I took my chain saw down to the stream one Sunday morning. It was a giant, white oak tree. Following the typical custom for cutting a large tree, I notched it on the side where I wanted it to fall. I then went to the other side to complete the cut. All of a sudden, in the middle of my work, I heard a frightening wrenching noise. The entire tree started vibrating violently, and then with a great wrenching groan it split vertically like a piece of 80-foot kindling. Half the tree came crashing to the ground, skimming my head and missing me by a mere fraction of an inch. Standing by the fallen tree, my body taken over by adrenaline, I could see what had happened: The tree had been rotting from the inside, penetrated by rain and insects. Instead of a footbridge, the tree had nearly become my guillotine! I returned home, shaken but alive.

Analogies are rife in the business world. When America Online purchased Time Warner, the latter assumed that AOL could create an enormous new sales channel for Time Warner content. Time Warner, after anticipating a great and profitable meeting of the minds, were shocked when nothing much came of it. When Seagram’s CEO Edgar Bronfman purchased Universal Studios in the late 1990s, he assumed that he could push the company to new heights in a dizzying race among media companies. When he turned around and sold Seagram-Universal to French giant Vivendi two years later, it was clear his assumptions had not panned out.

A major theme in Leading at Light Speed is that you need to be constantly attuned to your deepest assumptions in order to be an effective leader. Only through a deconstruction of the facade of arrogance can you find a path that clears the most dangerous decisions and assumptions. Regularly challenging your own thinking, regularly gathering a group of people you trust to tell it like it is – that’s the key to solving the assumption paradox.

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